Restaurant ingredient costs are not measured by one national invoice index, but U.S. food-at-home and consumer price measures provide useful benchmarks for bistro cooking. USDA Economic Research Service data show food-at-home prices rose 2.3% in 2025 from 2024, while the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported food-away-from-home prices up 3.8% over the 12 months ending June 2025. These are national price indicators, not recipe-level food-cost percentages or restaurant purchase invoices.
Contents
- Overall food and restaurant price movement
- Meat, poultry, and seafood
- Eggs and dairy
- Fruit and vegetables
- Grains, bakery, fats, and oils
- Beverages, sugar, and pantry condiments
Overall food and restaurant price movement
USDA ERS recorded a 2.3% increase in U.S. food-at-home prices in 2025 compared with 2024. The same source reports a 2.6% average annual increase from 2005 through 2024. For context, food-at-home prices rose 1.2% in 2024, compared with 5.0% in 2023. These annual comparisons describe retail food prices rather than the total cost of operating a restaurant. (USDA ERS, 2025 versus 2024; USDA ERS, 2024 and 2023)
The BLS food-at-home CPI was 2.4% higher in June 2025 than in June 2024. Its food-away-from-home CPI rose 3.8% over the year ending June 2025. Within away-from-home meals, the full-service meals and snacks CPI rose 4.0%, while the limited-service meals and snacks CPI rose 3.5%. Those measures describe consumer prices paid for meals, so they should not be read as direct ingredient inflation. (BLS, 12 months ending June 2025)
| Measure | Change | Measurement period |
|---|---|---|
| Food at home, USDA ERS | 2.3% | 2025 versus 2024 |
| Food at home, BLS CPI | 2.4% | June 2025 versus June 2024 |
| Food away from home, BLS CPI | 3.8% | 12 months ending June 2025 |
| Full-service meals and snacks, BLS CPI | 4.0% | 12 months ending June 2025 |
| Limited-service meals and snacks, BLS CPI | 3.5% | 12 months ending June 2025 |
For a bistro menu, the category pattern matters more than the headline alone. A menu built around beef, eggs, coffee, or sweet items faced different measured movements from one built around vegetables, seafood, rice, or cooking oils.
Meat, poultry, and seafood
Beef was the clearest pressure point among the listed animal proteins. USDA ERS reports beef and veal prices rose 11.6% in 2025 from 2024, after rising 5.4% in 2024. In the BLS measure for the 12 months ending June 2025, beef and veal rose 10.6%. Uncooked ground beef rose 10.3%, and uncooked beef steak rose 12.4%. The steak figure was higher than the broader beef-and-veal category in that period. (USDA ERS, 2025 versus 2024; USDA ERS, 2024; BLS, 12 months ending June 2025)
Other proteins moved more moderately. USDA ERS recorded pork up 1.3% in 2024, poultry up 0.8%, and other meat up 0.3%. Fish and seafood prices fell 1.9% in 2024. The BLS year-ending-June-2025 measures show pork up 0.5%, poultry up 3.4%, chicken up 3.9%, and fish and seafood up 0.9%. These figures cover different periods, so they are useful comparisons but should not be combined into one annual rate. (USDA ERS, 2024; BLS, 12 months ending June 2025)
| Protein category | USDA ERS change | BLS change |
|---|---|---|
| Beef and veal | 11.6% in 2025 | 10.6% year ending June 2025 |
| Pork | 1.3% in 2024 | 0.5% year ending June 2025 |
| Poultry | 0.8% in 2024 | 3.4% year ending June 2025 |
| Fish and seafood | -1.9% in 2024 | 0.9% year ending June 2025 |
For bistro cooking, the data point to a particularly sharp distinction between beef-led dishes and menus using pork, poultry, or seafood. They do not establish the cost of any particular portion, because portion size, trim, supplier, grade, and waste are not included in these indexes.
Eggs and dairy
Eggs show the largest single increase in the supplied BLS ingredient-level measures. The BLS eggs CPI rose 27.3% over the year ending June 2025. USDA ERS had previously recorded egg prices up 8.5% in 2024. Because the periods differ, the two figures describe separate observed movements rather than a single compounded estimate. (BLS, 12 months ending June 2025; USDA ERS, 2024)
Dairy prices were comparatively restrained in the annual ERS measures: dairy-product prices fell 0.2% in 2024 and rose 0.8% in 2025 from 2024. The BLS year-ending-June-2025 measures show milk up 2.1% and cheese and related products up 2.9%. Ice cream and related products fell 0.6% in the same period. (USDA ERS, 2024; USDA ERS, 2025 versus 2024; BLS, 12 months ending June 2025)
The contrast between eggs and other dairy categories is important for menu planning. Egg-heavy breakfasts, custards, batters, and sauces are exposed to the egg measure, while milk- or cheese-led dishes correspond to separate categories with smaller recorded changes in the cited period. The statistics do not quantify the share of a restaurant’s food cost attributable to any of these ingredients.
Fruit and vegetables
Produce results were mixed rather than uniformly inflationary. USDA ERS reports fresh-vegetable prices fell 0.4% in 2025 from 2024, after rising 1.0% in 2024. Fresh-fruit prices rose 0.4% in 2024. In the BLS measure for the year ending June 2025, fruits and vegetables overall rose 0.7%, fresh fruit rose 3.4%, and fresh vegetables fell 1.3%. (USDA ERS, 2025 versus 2024; USDA ERS, 2024; BLS, 12 months ending June 2025)
The BLS details show different outcomes within the produce case. Apple prices rose 7.2%, bananas 2.2%, and citrus fruit 0.7%. Potato prices rose 1.3%, while lettuce fell 4.7% and tomatoes fell 4.5%. Canned vegetables rose 3.8%, whereas frozen vegetables fell 2.9%. These are consumer price changes for the stated categories over the year ending June 2025, not forecasts. (BLS, 12 months ending June 2025)
For a bistro, the category spread supports comparing fresh, canned, and frozen purchasing options at the individual ingredient level. It does not prove that one format is cheaper after labor, storage, yield, or waste. The measured price changes simply show that the formats did not move together during this period.
Grains, bakery, fats, and oils
USDA ERS reports cereal and bakery product prices rose 1.0% in 2025 from 2024. Its 20-year average annual increase for cereal and bakery products through 2025 was 2.8%, covering 2006 through 2025. Fats and oils prices fell 0.8% in 2025 from 2024. (USDA ERS, 2025 versus 2024)
The BLS year-ending-June-2025 results provide a more detailed split. Cereals and bakery products rose 0.9%; flour and prepared flour mixes rose 1.7%; rice, pasta, and cornmeal fell 1.1%; and bakery products rose 1.5%. Fresh biscuits, rolls, and muffins rose 3.3%. Fats and oils fell 1.4%, while peanut butter rose 1.9%. (BLS, 12 months ending June 2025)
These figures distinguish staple inputs that can otherwise be grouped too broadly. Flour and prepared mixes increased while rice, pasta, and cornmeal declined in the cited BLS period. Bakery items and fresh biscuits, rolls, and muffins also had different movements. For recipe costing, the relevant category depends on the actual purchased ingredient, package, and measurement date.
Beverages, sugar, and pantry condiments
The pantry and beverage categories include several of the largest increases outside beef and eggs. USDA ERS reports sugar and sweets prices rose 5.1% in 2025 from 2024, while nonalcoholic beverage prices rose 3.8%. (USDA ERS, 2025 versus 2024)
The BLS nonalcoholic beverages and beverage materials CPI rose 4.4% over the year ending June 2025. Coffee rose 13.4%, roasted coffee 12.7%, and instant coffee 16.3%. Sugar and sweets rose 5.5%, while candy and chewing gum rose 8.1%. (BLS, 12 months ending June 2025)
Condiments also varied. The BLS spices, seasonings, condiments, and sauces CPI rose 2.5% over the year ending June 2025. Olives, pickles, and relishes rose 3.4%, while other condiments rose 12.7%. The source does not identify the restaurant purchasing channel or provide recipe-level cost shares, so these values are best used as transparent category benchmarks. (BLS, 12 months ending June 2025)
Taken together, the available measurements show why a single “restaurant ingredient inflation” number can hide meaningful differences. Beef, eggs, coffee, instant coffee, and other condiments recorded notable increases in the BLS period, while fresh vegetables, lettuce, tomatoes, frozen vegetables, rice, pasta, cornmeal, and fats and oils recorded declines in their listed categories. USDA ERS annual measures and BLS U.S. city-average CPI measures are national indicators; they are not independently verified restaurant invoices, and no forecast values are included here.